25-Year Electricity Sales and Green Certificate Revenue Comparison of Three Mounting Types in Southeast Coastal PV Plants

Based on national policy documents, industry standards and project parameters, this article is intended as technical exchange, project reference and data comparison. It is not directed at any company or product and is for reference only.

In accordance with the spirit of relevant documents of the National Development and Reform Commission and the General Office of the State Council:

From 2026, all newly built centralized PV will fully enter the electricity market, implementing a

new policy system of mechanism price backstop + market-based trading + capacity price + system balancing costs,

and no longer executing a 25-year fixed feed-in tariff.

This article takes a 350 MW centralized PV project in Fujian as the model

and uses 0.35 yuan/kWh as a conservative baseline tariff,

solely for the comparison of the technical routes of tracking brackets, fixed mounts and flexible brackets.

It does not constitute an investment commitment or a revenue guarantee,

and only provides an objective reference for investors' scheme comparison and technology selection.

I. Unified calculation basis

- Project capacity: 350 MW

- Project location: Fujian Province

- Operating period: 25 years

- Calculated tariff: 0.35 yuan/kWh

- Green certificate price: 6 yuan per certificate (1 certificate = 1000 kWh of green electricity)

- Module type: N-type high-efficiency double-glass bifacial modules

- 25-year end-of-life power guarantee: ≥ 89% (total degradation ≤ 11%)

Annual equivalent utilization hours

- Fixed mount: 1350 h

- Horizontal single-axis tracker: 1552.5 h (+15% versus fixed)

- Flexible bracket (12° small tilt): 1215 h (−10% versus fixed)

II. Core calculation formulas (feasibility-study standard)

1. Annual generation = project capacity × annual equivalent utilization hours

2. Annual electricity sales revenue = annual generation × 0.35 yuan/kWh

3. 25-year degraded electricity sales revenue = annual electricity sales revenue × 25 × 0.89

4. Annual green certificate revenue = annual generation ÷ 1000 × 6 yuan

5. 25-year degraded green certificate revenue = annual green certificate revenue × 25 × 0.89

6. 25-year total revenue = degraded electricity sales revenue + degraded green certificate revenue

III. 25-year revenue details of the three bracket types

1) Fixed mount

- Annual equivalent hours: 1350 h

- Annual generation: 472,500,000 kWh

- 25-year degraded net electricity sales revenue: 3.680 billion yuan

- 25-year degraded net green certificate revenue: 0.063 billion yuan

- 25-year total revenue: 3.743 billion yuan

2) Horizontal single-axis tracker

- Annual equivalent hours: 1552.5 h

- Annual generation: 543,375,000 kWh

- 25-year degraded net electricity sales revenue: 4.232 billion yuan

- 25-year degraded net green certificate revenue: 0.072 billion yuan

- 25-year total revenue: 4.304 billion yuan

3) Flexible bracket (12° small tilt)

- Annual equivalent hours: 1215 h

- Annual generation: 425,250,000 kWh

- 25-year degraded net electricity sales revenue: 3.312 billion yuan

- 25-year degraded net green certificate revenue: 0.057 billion yuan

- 25-year total revenue: 3.369 billion yuan

IV. Comparison of 25-year total revenue differences

1. Horizontal single-axis tracker versus fixed mount

Additional revenue: 0.561 billion yuan ｜ Revenue improvement: +15.00%

2. Fixed mount versus flexible bracket

Additional revenue: 0.374 billion yuan ｜ Revenue improvement: +11.11%

3. Horizontal single-axis tracker versus flexible bracket

Additional revenue: 0.935 billion yuan ｜ Revenue improvement: +27.75%

V. Comprehensive comparison table of the three bracket types

Core advantages: mature and stable with low cost; leading generation and revenue; long span with high clearance

VI. Core conclusions (at a glance)

1. Horizontal single-axis tracker

Calculated on a +15% generation gain,

the 25-year total revenue is 4.304 billion yuan,

15% higher than the fixed mount and 27.75% higher than the flexible bracket —

the most outstanding revenue advantage.

2. Fixed mount

Mature technology, stable operation and low cost;

mid-range revenue performance, suitable for projects seeking prudence.

3. Flexible bracket

Long span and high clearance, suitable for agrivoltaic and fishery-solar complementarity,

but affected by the 12° small tilt, generation and revenue are lower.

VII. The real impact of the new policy on revenue

1. National unified electricity market

- First 10–12 years: mechanism price as the backstop

- Following 13–15 years: no fixed tariff, fully market-based

- PV must bear system balancing costs, so actual revenue is slightly lower than in the table

2. Capacity price policy

- Dual revenue of energy price + capacity price

- PV plus energy storage can obtain additional stable revenue

- Tracking brackets deliver smoother output and higher capacity revenue

3. AI computing power & green electricity premium

- AI sustains a long-term 20%–30% premium for green electricity

- Tracking brackets generate the most electricity and the most green certificates, and benefit most visibly

- They can avoid congested, low-price generation periods and produce more peak-hour, high-price electricity

VIII. Kind reminders

This article is a 25-year theoretical calculation based on 0.35 yuan/kWh and a green certificate price of 6 yuan per certificate,

used solely to compare the generation capability of the three bracket types,

and does not promise a fixed 25-year revenue.

Actual revenue is affected by the mechanism price, electricity trading, system balancing costs,

capacity price, green electricity premium, policy adjustments and other factors, and fluctuates normally.

The generation gain of the horizontal single-axis tracker is deterministic, giving stronger resistance to market fluctuation.

IX. Disclaimer

1. This article is written on the basis of official national policies; all data are theoretical calculations

and do not constitute any investment advice or revenue commitment.

2. From 2026, newly built centralized PV has no 25-year fixed feed-in tariff;

later actual revenue is subject to grid settlement, electricity trading and official documents.

3. This article is for technical exchange, scheme comparison and investment reference only;

users should judge independently and decide scientifically in light of the actual project.

This article is calculated on the basis of national and industry standards plus the parameters of real registered projects.

Its content is technical exchange, project reference and data comparison,

not directed at any company or product, and for industry learning only.

This account focuses on PV tracking brackets, fixed mounts and flexible brackets —

25-year revenue calculation, service life, quality standards and measured analysis —

persistently letting the data speak and the standards judge.

This article is only a technical and economic analysis and does not constitute investment or purchasing advice.